The John Lewis Christmas Advert music formula

The big Christmas advert appears to have struck upon a winning musical formula.
Below, we've analysed the formula from the past 7 years to predict the most likely candidates for this year’s cover song.

Could the cover song be one of Bowie's Brit pop classics?

There's a lot of speculation by the British public that the John Lewis Christmas advert music could be a cover of a Brit pop classic by Bowie given the sad events that took place earlier this year. Even though our Christmas advert music formula says otherwise, we can't rule Bowie out as an option for this year's advert music. Humans are emotional beings and the breathy tones of Starman over a piano could be the sound of Christmas 2016. And if you’d like to save with John Lewis this Christmas, you can cut the cost of some equally magical gifts with a John Lewis discount code courtesy of vouchercloud.

2016 Predictor Past Music

The squares to the right of each statement indicate which years matched each part of the formula.

Based on previous years, this year’s Christmas advert song will likely be a...

09

2009
Sweet Child o' Mine
by Taken by Trees
original by Guns 'n' Roses

10

2010
Your Song
by Ellie Goulding
original by Elton John

11

2011
Please Please Please Let Me Get What I Want
by Slow Moving Millie
original by The Smiths

12

2012
The Power of Love
by Gabrielle Aplin
original by Frankie Goes to Hollywood

13

2013
Somewhere Only We Know
by Lily Allen
original by Keane

14

2014
Real Love
by Tom Odell
original by The Beatles

15

2015
Half the World Away
by Aurora
original by Oasis

7/7

Out of the last 7 adverts,
7 of the cover songs were slowed down

slowed-down
09

2009
Sweet Child o' Mine
by Taken by Trees
original by Guns 'n' Roses

10

2010
Your Song
by Ellie Goulding
original by Elton John

11

2011
Please Please Please Let Me Get What I Want
by Slow Moving Millie
original by The Smiths

12

2012
The Power of Love
by Gabrielle Aplin
original by Frankie Goes to Hollywood

13

2013
Somewhere Only We Know
by Lily Allen
original by Keane

14

2014
Real Love
by Tom Odell
original by The Beatles

15

2015
Half the World Away
by Aurora
original by Oasis

7/7

Out of the last 7 adverts,
7 of the cover songs were piano-driven

piano-driven
09

2009
Sweet Child o' Mine
by Taken by Trees
original by Guns 'n' Roses

10

2010
Your Song
by Ellie Goulding
original by Elton John

11

2011
Please Please Please Let Me Get What I Want
by Slow Moving Millie
original by The Smiths

12

2012
The Power of Love
by Gabrielle Aplin
original by Frankie Goes to Hollywood

13

2013
Somewhere Only We Know
by Lily Allen
original by Keane

14

2014
Real Love
by Tom Odell
original by The Beatles

15

2015
Half the World Away
by Aurora
original by Oasis

7/7

Out of the last 7 adverts,
7 of the cover songs were acoustic

acoustic
09

2009
Sweet Child o' Mine
by Taken by Trees
original by Guns 'n' Roses

10

2010
Your Song
by Ellie Goulding
original by Elton John

11

2011
Please Please Please Let Me Get What I Want
by Slow Moving Millie
original by The Smiths

12

2012
The Power of Love
by Gabrielle Aplin
original by Frankie Goes to Hollywood

13

2013
Somewhere Only We Know
by Lily Allen
original by Keane

14

2014
Real Love
by Tom Odell
original by The Beatles

15

2015
Half the World Away
by Aurora
original by Oasis

7/7

Out of the last 7 adverts,
7 of the cover songs were covers

cover

of a...

09

2009
Sweet Child o' Mine
by Taken by Trees
original by Guns 'n' Roses

10

2010
Your Song
by Ellie Goulding
original by Elton John

11
12

2012
The Power of Love
by Gabrielle Aplin
original by Frankie Goes to Hollywood

13

2013
Somewhere Only We Know
by Lily Allen
original by Keane

14

2014
Real Love
by Tom Odell
original by The Beatles

15
5/7

Out of the last 7 adverts,
7 of the songs were top 10 singles

UK top ten single

by a...

09

2009
Sweet Child o' Mine
by Taken by Trees
original by Guns 'n' Roses

10

2010
Your Song
by Ellie Goulding
original by Elton John

11

2011
Please Please Please Let Me Get What I Want
by Slow Moving Millie
original by The Smiths

12

2012
The Power of Love
by Gabrielle Aplin
original by Frankie Goes to Hollywood

13

2013
Somewhere Only We Know
by Lily Allen
original by Keane

14

2014
Real Love
by Tom Odell
original by The Beatles

15

2015
Half the World Away
by Aurora
original by Oasis

7/7

Out of the last 7 adverts,
7 of the songs were sung by male singers

male
09
10

2010
Your Song
by Ellie Goulding
original by Elton John

11

2011
Please Please Please Let Me Get What I Want
by Slow Moving Millie
original by The Smiths

12

2012
The Power of Love
by Gabrielle Aplin
original by Frankie Goes to Hollywood

13

2013
Somewhere Only We Know
by Lily Allen
original by Keane

14

2014
Real Love
by Tom Odell
original by The Beatles

15

2015
Half the World Away
by Aurora
original by Oasis

6/7

Out of the last 7 adverts,
6 of the songs were sung by British singers

British
09

2009
Sweet Child o' Mine
by Taken by Trees
original by Guns 'n' Roses

10

2010
Your Song
by Ellie Goulding
original by Elton John

11
12

2012
The Power of Love
by Gabrielle Aplin
original by Frankie Goes to Hollywood

13

2013
Somewhere Only We Know
by Lily Allen
original by Keane

14

2014
Real Love
by Tom Odell
original by The Beatles

15

2015
Half the World Away
by Aurora
original by Oasis

6/7

Out of the last 7 adverts,
6 of the songs were sung by male, British rock singers

Rock
09

2009
Sweet Child o' Mine
by Taken by Trees
original by Guns 'n' Roses

10
11

2011
Please Please Please Let Me Get What I Want
by Slow Moving Millie
original by The Smiths

12

2012
The Power of Love
by Gabrielle Aplin
original by Frankie Goes to Hollywood

13

2013
Somewhere Only We Know
by Lily Allen
original by Keane

14

2014
Real Love
by Tom Odell
original by The Beatles

15

2015
Half the World Away
by Aurora
original by Oasis

6/7

Out of the last 7 adverts,
6 of the songs were sung by an all male British rock band

band
09
10

2010
Your Song
by Ellie Goulding
original by Elton John

11
12
13

2013
Somewhere Only We Know
by Lily Allen
original by Keane

14

2014
Real Love
by Tom Odell
original by The Beatles

15

2015
Half the World Away
by Aurora
original by Oasis

4/7

Out of the last 7 adverts,
4 of the songs were sung by an all male British rock band who have had 4 or more number one albums in the UK

that’s had at least 4 number 1 albums in the UK.

The song will be sung by a...

09

2009
Sweet Child o' Mine
by Taken by Trees
original by Guns 'n' Roses

10

2010
Your Song
by Ellie Goulding
original by Elton John

11

2011
Please Please Please Let Me Get What I Want
by Slow Moving Millie
original by The Smiths

12

2012
The Power of Love
by Gabrielle Aplin
original by Frankie Goes to Hollywood

13

2013
Somewhere Only We Know
by Lily Allen
original by Keane

14
15

2015
Half the World Away
by Aurora
original by Oasis

6/7

Out of the last 7 adverts,
6 of the songs were covered by a female

female
09

2009
Sweet Child o' Mine
by Taken by Trees
original by Guns 'n' Roses

10

2010
Your Song
by Ellie Goulding
original by Elton John

11

2011
Please Please Please Let Me Get What I Want
by Slow Moving Millie
original by The Smiths

12

2012
The Power of Love
by Gabrielle Aplin
original by Frankie Goes to Hollywood

13

2013
Somewhere Only We Know
by Lily Allen
original by Keane

14

2014
Real Love
by Tom Odell
original by The Beatles

15

2015
Half the World Away
by Aurora
original by Oasis

7/7

Out of the last 7 adverts,
7 of the songs were covered by a British or Scandinavian female

British or Scandinavian
09

2009
Sweet Child o' Mine
by Taken by Trees
original by Guns 'n' Roses

10

2010
Your Song
by Ellie Goulding
original by Elton John

11

2011
Please Please Please Let Me Get What I Want
by Slow Moving Millie
original by The Smiths

12

2012
The Power of Love
by Gabrielle Aplin
original by Frankie Goes to Hollywood

13

2013
Somewhere Only We Know
by Lily Allen
original by Keane

14

2014
Real Love
by Tom Odell
original by The Beatles

15

2015
Half the World Away
by Aurora
original by Oasis

7/7

Out of the last 7 adverts,
7 of the songs were covered by a British or Scandinavian female indie artist

indie
09

2009
Sweet Child o' Mine
by Taken by Trees
original by Guns 'n' Roses

10

2010
Your Song
by Ellie Goulding
original by Elton John

11

2011
Please Please Please Let Me Get What I Want
by Slow Moving Millie
original by The Smiths

12

2012
The Power of Love
by Gabrielle Aplin
original by Frankie Goes to Hollywood

13

2013
Somewhere Only We Know
by Lily Allen
original by Keane

14

2014
Real Love
by Tom Odell
original by The Beatles

15

2015
Half the World Away
by Aurora
original by Oasis

7/7

Out of the last 7 adverts,
7 of the songs were covered by a British or Scandinavian female indie solo singer

solo singer
09

2009
Sweet Child o' Mine
by Taken by Trees
original by Guns 'n' Roses

10

2010
Your Song
by Ellie Goulding
original by Elton John

11

2011
Please Please Please Let Me Get What I Want
by Slow Moving Millie
original by The Smiths

12

2012
The Power of Love
by Gabrielle Aplin
original by Frankie Goes to Hollywood

13
14

2014
Real Love
by Tom Odell
original by The Beatles

15

2015
Half the World Away
by Aurora
original by Oasis

6/7

Out of the last 7 adverts,
6 of the songs were covered by a British or Scandinavian female indie solo singer who released a debut album or EP in the last three years.

who released a debut album or EP in the last 3 years.

Based on the above, this year’s cover song will most likely be sung by one of these 17 singers...

  • Billie Marten
  • Bo Rocha
  • Du Blonde
  • Flo Morrissey
  • Hannah Lou Clark
  • Indiana
  • Izzy Bizu
  • Kate Jackson
  • Kathryn Joseph
  • Laura Welsh
  • Laurel
  • Lyla Foy
  • Nina Persson
  • Robyn Sherwell
  • Shura
  • Snoh Aalegra
  • Tove Lo

And the singer will most likely be covering a top ten hit by one of these 21 classic British bands...

  • Artic Monkeys
  • Blur
  • Coldplay
  • Dire Straits
  • Fleetwood Mac
  • Genesis
  • Iron Maiden
  • Kasabian
  • Muse
  • Pink Floyd
  • Queen
  • Radiohead
  • SIMPLE MINDS
  • SIMPLY RED
  • Slade
  • Status Quo
  • Stereophonics
  • THE POLICE
  • THE ROLLING STONES
  • THE SHADOWS
  • Wet Wet Wet

The complete list of songs likely to be covered this year is included in the playlist below.

Note: some of Slade’s top ten hits are not included in the playlist, because they are not available on Spotify. We also removed a small number of songs by some of the artists where the content of the song made it unlikely to be featured in a Christmas advert.

The squares to the right of each statement indicate which years matched each part of the formula.

Year 2015

Advert Man on the Moon

Song Half the World Away

Singer Aurora

Year 2014

Advert Monty the Penguin

Song Real Love

Singer Tom Odell

Year 2013

Advert The Bear and the Hare

Song Somewhere Only We Know

Singer Lily Allen

Year 2012

Advert The Journey

Song The Power of Love

Singer Gabrielle Aplin

Year 2011

Advert The Long Wait

Song Please Please Let Me
Get What I Want

Singer Slow Moving Millie

Year 2010

Advert A Tribute to Givers

Song Your Song

Singer Ellie Goulding

Year 2009

Advert Sweet Child 'O' Mine

Song Sweet Child 'O' Mine

Singer Taken by Trees

How did we do this?

Having analysed the songs from the past 7 years, we set out to find singers and bands who might fit the criteria for this year’s song.

To find the singers likely to sing the cover song:
From AlbumOfTheYear, we gathered a list of 18,480 albums and EPs that were released in 2014-2016. We then used the genre labels on last.fm to filter for female indie singers. Then we cross-referenced Spotify, iTunes, AlbumOfTheYear and last.fm to find the year of each singer’s debut album or EP. This left us with the 17 female singers listed above.

To find the bands likely to be covered:
We used the Official UK Charts combined with genre labels on last.fm to generate a list of British rock bands that have had 4 or more number 1 UK albums and at least 1 top ten single. We excluded any artists that were covered in previous Christmas ads which left us with the 21 bands listed above.

Even though no single song in the past 7 years has ticked every box of the winning formula, these are still the most recurrent patterns. And if this year’s song meets every criteria, perhaps it will be the ultimate Christmas advert song!

We’re looking forward to finding out if the predictions were right, and most importantly, another heart-warming, tear-jerking, great Christmas ad!